Our record
(excluding NCAA Final Four)
​
Why should anyone care what we think? Well, if you're interested in selling beer, our record of marketing predictions has no equal that we know of in the beer business. We've called every one of these beer-ad consequences well in advance (Advisory: Multiple links ahead!)...

- Bud Light's many advertising failures over the past several years (here in 2013, here in 2014, here also in 2014, here in 2016, and here in 2017)

​- The abject market failure of Miller Fortune;

- Miller Lite's ad flops (here in 2014, here in 2015, here and here in 2016);

- Coors Light's strategy mess-- since abandoned-- in 2016);

- The dramatic success of craft-beer session IPAs in general and Founders All Day in particular (from launch to one of the top-ten craft beers in the five years' time since our prediction).

Paying attention yet, Dos Equis?

Just a few months ago, not long after Dos Equis introduced us to their then new "most interesting man" (also referred to as the "second-most interesting man" by some wags), we identified the four keys to the original advertising success. Accurately predicting how their new ads would fare, we went on to answer our own "(did) lightning strike twice?" question directly: It had not.

How about now?

If we do say so ourselves, our record of predicting beer-selling success and failure over the years is pretty impressive. So with sales continuing to fall behind the second-most interesting man ads, did the Dos Equis marketing brain trust go back to a clever focus on masculinity, the consequential strategic decision we had identified in their original "most interesting man" success? More important, did they choose to highlight and dramatize some unique property of their beer, as we had suggested when the first-most interesting man retired?

Nope... and nope.

​In place of learning from the brand's past and profiting from HeyBeerDan insight, we get...

Nothing at all about the beer. No emphasis on the brand's historical masculinity focus. Nothing even slightly... interesting.

Failing to take advantage of brand experience and beer-advertising expertise?

That's not "interesante," it's "estúpido."

Surprise!

... a fresh keg tapped every six seconds."

Make no mistake, those are product-distinctiveness claims, and it's been way too long since they've been employed in light-beer ads from BigBeer.

What could possibly explain Coors Light and Bud Light finally choosing--almost simultaneously-- to bring product-distinctiveness messages into their advertising? Both light beer brands have historically been enamored of appeals centering on anything but their distinctive product characteristics. Heck, in Bud Light's case, for more than a decade now, they've aired one campaign after another chock full of meaningless nonsense--Remember Amy Schumer? That's okay, no one else does, either-- with not a hint of a product claim. And Coors Light abandoned "most refreshing" boasting for meaningless "lifestyle" nonsense and the obtuse tag line: "Climb on."

Yes, that's two sentences in a row featuring the adjective "meaningless," but it nicely highlights our repeated critiques of the two brands' ads over the past several years.

Throughout all this vapid beer advertising, ours has been a loud (if indeed any blog can ever be called that) and consistent voice proclaiming that, without selling their product distinctiveness, both of America's top two beer brands were in for trouble. So, are we egomaniacal enough to posit that the marketing geniuses at Miller Coors and Anheuser-Busch finally slapped their respective foreheads exclaiming, "Dang, that HeyBeerDan dude is right"?

We're egomaniacal, but not that egomaniacal.

According to Beer Marketer's Insights, both brands are staring at volume losses amounting to millions of dollars of vanished profit. And the declines are only getting worse, seemingly by the week. Bud Light is off 6% in the new year, Coors Light's off 5%. The fact is, sales-desperation is the common thread accounting for the shift here...

Before anyone counters that these advertisers have suddenly morphed into brilliant marketers, here's a pronouncement to temper enthusiasm: "This is 'the first time we’re using Dilly Dilly to tout a product benefit,'" said one of the Bud Light team, again, according to Beer Marketers Insights. When the last thing they think of should be the first thing, the marketing department needs a major re-set.

Said another way, "After spending tens of millions on meaningless Dilly Dilly ads that haven't sold a drop of beer, we're going to add a touch of product distinctiveness and see if that works." The fact is, it's going to take more than a dash, and more than an ad here and there. It requires real focus.

Still, we applaud even the beginning of this light-beer change of direction, dare we say, change of heart. People--by the millions--choose these two brands for a reason. Getting beer marketers to understand what's special and distinctive in the beer itself can be the first step to creating ads that motivate beer drinkers to choose. The basis for that choice? Ads that ever more dramatically and creatively communicate the beer's difference, its distinctiveness. Its... reason.

For now, based on the relative emphasis on the respective brand's distinctiveness as delivered in these ads, it appears Coors Light has a definite head start. For a market-leader under real pressure, Anheuser-Busch's approach here is oddly more tentative, more of a half-step.

Nevertheless, call us optimistic. Guarded, but optimistic.