If you look back at Big Beer's new product launches-- many shown here-- you may notice most have something in common. I mean, besides being unable to generate long-term consumer demand.

Oddly, in spite of their shared fate as underwhelming sales producers, if not outright bombs, they all enjoyed the rosy glow of early press hailing in-market surprises of "unexpected volume," "well above-plan results," and "quick distribution builds." In the end, however, the rosier the early press reports, the more likely they masked-- perhaps intentionally-- the beginning of the brand's demise. 

Miller Fortune trumpets "fastest distribution in MillerCoors history"... all six years of that history. What's more, distribution-build is a measure of wholesaler execution, not an accurate predictor of brand success. The "30 basis points of total industry volume" (which sounds so much better than a .003 share) and other such early measures of consumer buying, reflect mostly trial purchases at a time when the new brand has every possible trial-generation device working for it. 

Another popular press-release gush is "exceeding all our expectations." In the spirit of double-speak skepticism, this might best be interpreted: "We worried this was a loser from the start, but a few folks are actually buying it."

When it comes to reliable fortune-telling, there are better indications of where a new product is headed. Sometimes, what isn't said is telling. For example, the MillerCoors CEO professed his pride in the brand's marketing programs, but chose to omit mention of firing Miller Fortune's ad agency. What does it say to spend months or years preparing advertising to launch a new brand, only to jettison the agency-- and presumably, the ads and all the thinking behind them-- when the brand is just a few months old?

Not that someone shouldn't have paid for approving this work. Maybe the same guy who thought "un-distilled" somehow differentiated a beer.

And look, here he is! At the very beginning, before it was even available in the market, this "innovation" guy, responsible for creating the brand, elbowed himself into the publicity limelight. Maybe because his background was in vacuum cleaners, he wanted to flex his beer cred. Regardless, here's a press-release photo of him basking in the halcyon glow of the Miller Fortune launch announcement. Lately, he's been much less visible.

As a new brand's fortunes in the market dim to a point the PR folks can no longer re-make reality, three things inevitably happen:

People shy away from identifying their careers with these brands. 

Photos like these vanish from press releases... 

... and then the press releases themselves vanish.

Altogether, a pretty good fortune-teller's crystal ball.

As a result, brewers routinely mount special seasonal promotions designed to get more than their fair share of all that extra beer-purchasing. Some have gotten quite good at it, too. Take the current "Labatt LaBucket List" summer effort.

By now you may be asking yourself, "Hey, how difficult is it to put together a good summer promotion, really?"
Good question. Perhaps someone should ask the Heineken promotion folks. Here's the "Open Your City" commercial running coincident with their "Open Your Summer" promotion, all of it lashed together as part of the "Open Your World" global brand zeitgeist.

This one-ad-fits-all global creative platform continues to flog the idea that showing people at cool parties somehow sells any particular brand of beer. (Ask Bud Light how well that works.) Apparently there's no time to spend pushing a mundane summer-season promotion (despite no doubt promising the trade the promotion would have "television support"). 

And "mundane" may be too kind. Because if for some unexplainable reason you actually do go online, curious to find out if there even is a Heineken summer promotion, you discover the Open Your Summer array of "legendary rewards" that looks mostly like yard-sale leftovers. 

"Click any prize for more info?" 

"No thanks, I think I'll just pick up another twelve of Labatt and try for something really 'legendary.' Like that big... friggin'... boat."

Not long ago, Heineken named a new U.S. marketing honcho on the strength of his having singlehandedly grown their Brazilian business by an almost unbelievable 500%. Heineken's business here, however, is still hurting badly. Tanking, even. 

Looks like this summer won't be the beginning of any 500% improvement in the U.S., unless it's for Labatt.